European J General Medicine , 4(3),128-134, [HUF1] Huff D (1954) How to Lie with Statistics. → The new version was less open to misinterpretation. For example, the data for the chart below was cited in the Summer 2007 issue of the USA City Journal in an article authored by David Gratzer M.D., in which he stated that says the U.S. prostate cancer survival rate is 81.2 percent and the U.K. survival rate is 44.3 percent. Statistical data >. It is probable but not certain that sooner or later the tossed coin will come down heads, but that probability does not change from toss to toss. Statistical data can be misinterpreted if either: 1. One respondent to a discussion about this example pointed out that most eggs are boxed in large sorting and packing warehouses, and in some cases eggs are checked against a strong light source to see if they contain a double yolk. Your opinions are important to us. (212) 419-8286. hadley.ward@statista.com . As such it can be regarded as a central issue in statistical research, often related to sampling that is far too small or unrepresentative to enable such conclusions to be reached, — there is endless scope for misinterpretation and there are many books on what makes for good and bad visualizations. It's an eye opener to know that even with massive amounts of big data, you can still get bad results if … Mr. Speaker, this is such a misinterpretation that it reeks of bad faith. For example, when examining the incidence of particular diseases recorded in different census districts (or hospital catchment areas etc) we might find that for some diseases recorded cases were quite low in rural districts (<10), but were much higher in urban districts (>100). Neither your address nor the recipient's address will be used for any other purpose. Mr. Speaker, this is such a misinterpretation that it reeks of bad faith. A common problem is the wording of questions may lead the respondent to respond in a particular manner. Recent examples of this kind of inadequate cause-effect reasoning include: the observation that breast cancer rates are higher in countries that have a high fat content in their diet, and then suggesting that women who eat more fat in their diet are more likely to suffer from breast cancer; or that crime rates are higher in areas of high unemployment, and then stating that it is the unemployed who are responsible for most crimes. The data in this case is actually quite cyclical, and choosing 2006 rather than, say 2007, provides a completely misleading picture, as the graph below demonstrates. In January-October 2020 industrial products at 30,7 milliard manats were produced In January-September 2020 gross domestic product in amount of 52074,0 million manats was produced in the country. The problem of statistical grouping of data, described in the previous section (, — this fallacy involves ascribing characteristics to members of a group based on a potentially unrepresentative sample of members. However, the apparently simple and clear chart can easily provide scope for confused reporting. and Terms of Use. and 50% $75,000 p.a., or many such combinations — from the aggregated data alone is is simply not possible to know. You can be assured our editors closely monitor every feedback sent and will take appropriate actions. A simple example is the suggestion that most individuals in a given census area earn $50,000 p.a. However, publication is not simply the reporting of facts arising from a straightforward analysis thereof. People often fail to evaluate possible "third factors", or outside causes, that may create an association between two things because both are actually outcomes of the third factor. The null hypothesis is that the new treatment and the old each have a 50-50 chance of producing the better outcome for any pair. The quality (will return to this notion later) indicator is ill-constructed (oversimplication of the underlying hypotheses for example) 2. It's an eye opener to know that even with massive amounts of big data, you can still get bad results if … Did you know there's a correlation between the number of people who drowned each year in the United States by falling into a swimming pool and number of films Nicholas Cage appeared in? Be especially sceptical of unlabelled graphs. Suppose that a large hospital has 40 births per day on average, with 50% of these being boys. Several surveys have revealed that these two indices are generally misunderstood. On 2nd February 2010 a UK national newspaper, the Daily Mail, reported the story of a woman who had bought a box of 6 eggs and found that every one contained a double-yolk. Many of the facts and figures quoted in the news, such as unemployment and divorce rates can be very misleading. Click here to sign in with Surveys that invite respondents to participate rather than randomly selecting individuals and ensuring that the resulting survey sample is truly representative are especially common. As such it can be regarded as a central issue in statistical research, often related to sampling that is far too small or unrepresentative to enable such conclusions to be reached, •Misinterpretation of visualizations — there is endless scope for misinterpretation and there are many books on what makes for good and bad visualizations. See also: ... Official statisticians should publicly rebut any misinterpretation of statistics. With a base index of 100 the graph shows a 50% rise over 7 years, but clearly within any given window there are many movements up and down. For example, when examining the incidence of particular diseases recorded in different census districts (or hospital catchment areas etc) we might find that for some diseases recorded cases were quite low in rural districts (<10), but were much higher in urban districts (>100). How to use misinterpretation in a sentence. Misinterpretation and abuse of statistical tests, confidence intervals, and statistical power have been decried for decades, yet remain rampant. We read them in news stories and they’re used to determine policies that will affect every aspect of our lives. “He uses statistics as a drunken man uses a lamppost – for support, not illumination.” New search features Acronym Blog Free tools "AcronymFinder.com. Because of the relatively low population-at-risk in the rural area this might then show the risk appears much higher in the rural areas. In the new O-level E-math syllabus (4048), an additional segment has been introduced to the statistics Data analysis section. If you have seen it only once, then it is likely to be due to random chance. We often hear generalisations about how two groups differ in some way, such as that women are more nurturing while men are physically stronger. Based on test results in the UK and in a number of other countries the first part of this statement is well documented, but is the second part, which is a conclusion implying causality, actually correct? The inferences drawn may be valid, and such observations can provide very useful pointers for research, but the data only provides very tenuous support for the claims made. Tests new strategies, ad copy, campaigns, etc. Isn’t it supposed to be 100%? We test the claim by matching 5 pairs of similarly ill patients and randomly assigning one to the current and one to the new treatment in each pair. The BBC news site covered an article … British Medical J., 330, 4 June 2005, 1-5, [ERC1] Ercan I, Yazici B, Yang Y, Özkaya1 G, Cangur S, Ediz B, Kan I(2007) Misuage of Statistics in Medical Research. terms than large samples. The Lancet, London (issued in various editions until 1971. What's New; Calendar; About; Blog. Certain types of reasoning may appear entirely plausible but on closer examination can be seen as fundamentally flawed. Suppose a new treatment for a serious disease is alleged to work better than the current treatment. •clustered sampling — this issue relates to the collection of data in a manner that is known in advance to be biased, but is not subsequently adjusted for this bias. Smaller sample sizes are also more prone to bias from missing data and non-responses in surveys and similar research exercises. Their data sources are now understood to have produced biased samples that were likely to be of a higher socio-economic status. We do not guarantee individual replies due to extremely high volume of correspondence. In some cultures diligence in completing surveys is taken much more seriously than in others. It is also important to be aware that small samples tend to be much more variable in. A simple example is misjudging the effect of, and 50% $75,000 p.a., or many such combinations — from the aggregated data alone is is simply not possible to know. The content is provided for information purposes only. Whilst carefully designed, peer-reviewed and repeatable research does provide a strong foundation for decision-making, weak research or selective presentation of results can have profoundly damaging consequences. The answer is the smaller hospital, because its records will exhibit inherently more variability — a change from 5 boys to 6 is sufficient to raise the proportion to 60%, whereas the larger hospital would need to have at least 4 more boys than girls born to result in a 60%+ result, which is less likely to occur. ", Darker/Blue zone indicates ozone level <220 Dobson units; source: NASA, — researchers in scientific and social research frequently have a particular research focus, experience and possibly current norms or paradigms of their discipline or society at large. Abbreviation to define. There are occasions when data is deliberately falsified. Is reporting of cases for this disease the same in rural and urban areas, or is there some differential in recording perhaps due to differences in the quality of health care available or for social reasons? Pre-conceptions may easily also lead to weak or incorrect reasoning from the data to conclusions, •data trawling — with large multi-variate datasets there is a high probability that statistically significant findings can be discovered somewhere in the data — brute-force processing of datasets looking for significant results that relate to a particular area of research interest, with or without explicit pre-conceptions, will often succeed but may well be entirely spurious. This recorded Blab podcast focuses on the misinterpretation of news on social media. On a scale from 0 to 100, two columns might look the same height. To be meaningful a statistical graph or chart should indicate: •whether it starts at zero or some other value, and, •how it was calculated, in particular exactly what dataset and time period it is based upon. In recent elections, the media has often overestimated the precision of polling, cherry-picked data and portrayed elections as sure things when that conclusion very much wasn’tsupported by polls or other empirical evidence. Examples of spatial effects include: location dependence (for example social groupings in specific areas, types of building, membership of organizations etc); local correlation of results due to water, materials or other flows (e.g. The prosecutor then claims on the basis of this opinion that there is only one chance in a million that the accused is innocent. Medical Xpress covers all medical research advances and health news, Tech Xplore covers the latest engineering, electronics and technology advances, Science X Network offers the most comprehensive sci-tech news coverage on the web. So, if X and Y vary together in some consistent manner, it might be that X causes Y, or Y causes X or that some set of third variables, Z are involved, such that Z causes X and Z causes Y so that the correlation of X and Y is simply due to their relationship to Z. There are several problems with this interpretation of the graph. Guess numbers … One very early failure of a large dataset was when the US Literary Digest’s postal poll regarding the US presidential election in 1936 received roughly 2.4 million returns. PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT FOR MISINTERPRETATION OF STATISTICAL DATA 06.10.2016 The State Statistical Office, as authorised bearer of the statistical system in the Republic of Macedonia, is obliged to react publically in case of misinterpretation or misuse of statistical data, in accordance to article 9-a of the Law on State Statistics. Examples include: deliberate omission of data that does not fit the preconceptions of the researcher, or the conclusions they are seeking; omission or adjustment of data (this may be acceptable practice in some instances, but should always be made explicit — for example, exclusion of outliers on the grounds that they appear to be recording errors). It’s no surprise that this problem persists! In a different context, surveys of individuals may find that obtaining an ethnically representative sample is very difficult, perhaps for social or language reasons, resulting in under-representation or exclusion of certain groups — groups such as the disabled or very young or very old are often inadvertently excluded from samples for this reason. in the initial design of the data collection, selection or extraction process. You might be asking, “Is this really a problem, or is it just semantics?” Make no mistake; the correct and incorrect interpretations are very different. Establishing causal relationships beyond doubt can be extremely difficult, but is often made easier by careful experimental design, thorough analysis of related factors, and repeated, independent, randomized trials. Clearly some variation is not visible, whilst within-day fluctuations are not reported. Click the video to watch. Searching for sub-eV sterile neutrinos using two highly sensitive detectors. If you're following up on one thing as a possible cause, ask yourself what, in turn, causes that thing? Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Religion / The Misinterpretation Of The Palm Sunday (16000 Views) Palm Sunday: Ugandans Hired A White Man To Play Jesus For Them / VIOLENT. The seven deadly sins of statistical misinterpretation, and how to avoid them March 28, 2017 3.04pm EDT Winnifred Louis , Cassandra Chapman , The University of Queensland Deliberate omission of results that show no significant results or results that do not support a particular hypothesis can be regarded as a form of deliberate falsification and is a well-established problem in academic and medical research. Take the following example: "Girls at single sex schools do better than girls in mixed schools, therefore single-sex schools are better for girls". In this series we look at some of the common mistakes we make and how to avoid them when thinking about statistics, probability and risk. This may result in inadvertent use of techniques or survey questions that influence the outcome of the research. However, despite receiving an impressive number of responses, the poll incorrectly predicted that Landon would beat Roosevelt. NAD: Is nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide a super supplement or all hype? Also, apply common sense when judging the credibility and accuracy of the statistics. The primary … In one instance the present author achieved a greater than 100% response rate to a one page questionnaire asking respondents to list their activities on a given day — in principle impossible, but in fact many respondents photocopied the questionnaire and completed multiple sheets, even though this was not requested. Similar issues may arise if not all intermediate datapoints are plotted, or if data prior to or after the plotted sequence is not shown but would place the information in a more meaningful and complete context. A copy of this article is reproduced on Tufte's website: http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/hill, [BLA1] Blastland M, Dilnot A (2008) The Tiger That Isn't. The worst part is that sometimes you don't know when it's lying. This segment is about explaining why a given statistical diagram leads to misinterpretation of data.. Statistics can be easily twisted in favor of the presenter to distort or prove a … (the authors did not include duration at the address, or where the children went to nursery etc); is vertical as well as horizontal proximity to high voltage lines of importance?

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